Nineteen hundred and ninety nine was an insane year. Some
go as far as to declare that it was a high point in the history of
mankind. Others claim it brought irreversible changes to the way we
think, the way we live, and the way we interact with each other.
Maybe so, but I have yet to see any profound changes in my own
life.
All year long, instead of simply enjoying the benefits of the
"new economy," I was desperately trying to understand something that
does not appear to make any sense whatsoever. With 1 day left before
the Big Millennium Bash, I am still very much bewildered by this
whole "Internet revolution" phenomenon.
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As the year began, we have witnessed the very concept of "high
tech" being redefined. Not so long ago, crafting space ships and
exploring elementary particles was referred to as "pushing the
limits of science and technology." Well, no more of that pathetic
nonsense. On the dawn of the Internet era, if it didn't say
"dot-com," it was yesterday's news. For the "Internet generation,"
life became very simple - who needs to waste years studying for a
Ph.D. when all one ever has to know about technology can be found in
an "Introductory Guide to Visual Basic?"
Then in March came the big news about disastrous e-mail viruses,
followed by numerous cases of Internet users' privacy being
compromised. For some reason, there was no significant public
backlash to any of these incidents. In fact, I don't know anybody
who stopped using Microsoft Office, an application suite whose
infamous macro interface still lacks any provisions for virus
protection. Only a handful of people abandoned Hotmail after they
have found out that their personal e-mail was being made accessible
to the whole wide world. It almost gave me an impression that the
public is willing to sacrifice privacy and integrity of their
personal and business data for the holy cause of Microsoft-dominated
unified computing.
Therefore, why would anybody in their right mind expect the same
herd of people to suddenly jump ship in a hasty exodus from Windows
to Linux is one of the greatest mysteries of 1999.
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For most of the year, it looked as if all those Y2K bug issues
would bring certain disillusionment into the idyllic picture of
computerization in general. Instead, for some strange reason, the
public was more than willing to hand over hundreds of billions of
dollars to fix what appears to be the dumbest oversight of the past
millennium. Not only did we not get rid of the morons whose minds
were too shallow to have any foresight whatsoever, we have once
again sent them laughing all the way to the bank.
What the whole deal has left us feeling is deep resentment for
technology in general. Even people who have overcome their fear of
flying years ago, are starting to have hard time coping with this
long forgotten frustration. How it was possible to initiate the
hysteria and push the whole "Apocalypse Now!" notion onto the
seemingly civilized late 20th century post-modern society is still
beyond me.
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In the meantime, defying the wisdom accumulated over the
preceding millennia, the rules of commerce appear to have been
magically altered. For one thing, a business is no longer required
to make money to be considered successful. In fact, turning a profit
became, well… so passé. Even more bizarre is that a company's market
capitalization became solely a function of the PR office's ability
to spark excitement in the minds of day traders. A corporation whose
spokesmen could utter the right buzzwords at the right time was
bound to quadruple its stock price, regardless of whether it had any
intellectual property, shipping products, or even a remote chance of
ever providing a return on investment.
Another big trend of 1999 was "selling" free products and
services, utilizing the so-called advertising-driven business model
that is fundamentally absurd. It works something like this -
X.com advertises on Y.com, which buys banner ads on Z.com, which in
turn pays for space on X.com's site. In a nutshell, all we have is a
bunch of Internet start-ups who are promoting each other's
complimentary offerings, creating a perfect illusion of a
multi-billion "virtual economy." There is obviously no money to be
made here but if X, Y, and Z have enough IPO funds to remain afloat
for a couple of years, their owners will have plenty of time to cash
in on their artificially inflated stock holdings before filing for
Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
The above was just one of the countless pyramid schemes that the
gullible day traders were so happy to buy into. For them, the
old-time professional investors with MBAs who kept issuing warnings
about Internet stocks being overvalued hundred-fold, became nothing
but an annoyance. Suddenly it was the day traders who became the
perpetrators of the "new economy."
Thanks to them, Yahoo is now worth almost twice as much as
General Motors, while having about a thousand times less
revenue and bringing home less than half a percent of GM's
income. And, let me remind you that Yahoo is one of those rare
Internet companies that somehow manages to stay profitable. Now, Red
Hat, which is explicitly prohibited from ever owning any
intellectual property, is a whole different story altogether…
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And so I leave this turbulent year with a fair amount of
skepticism — this big party cannot go forever. Clearly, The End Is Near!